Productive delusions
Daniel Kahneman, the formidable dean of the behavioral economics community, once observed that “optimism is widespread, stubborn, and costly.” Considering the performance of large infrastructure projects, which apparently exceed their budget more than 90% of the time, he clearly has a point. Humans are systematically deluded, and pervasive project overruns are quantifiable proof. But are delusions always costly in the personal or professional realm?
Consider marriage. Sandra Murray of the State University of New York at Buffalo has measured spousal delusions with something called the “discrepancy score.” She asks each person to rate their partner on a variety of dimensions: how attractive, kind, funny, and intelligent he or she is. Then she poses the same questions to that partner's closest group of friends. Those who see their spouse exactly as their friends do are known as “realists.” Those who rate their spouse more generously have a positive discrepancy score. Those who judge the partner more harshly have a negative discrepancy score. The strength and longevity of a marriage is unambiguously correlated with a positive discrepancy score.
Consider sales. Salespeople examine their territory at the start of a fiscal year. After reviewing the data, some decide an apparently promising account would be a waste of their time. Some resolve to pursue that account, but to downplay the upside based on a prudent assessment of the risks. Some concentrate on the account with a burning conviction that it belongs in a different stratosphere, strategically and financially. They see a remote and improbable future that is within their power to create. The highest performing salespeople are consistently in the last category. They are the deluded ones.
Individuals rely on productive delusions, as do societies. We can’t progress without them. Behind many of the most celebrated accomplishments is a seemingly preposterous chasm between perception and reality. In the space of five years, Conor McGregor went from collecting welfare cheques to earning $100M for his bout with Floyd Mayweather. He was deluded. J. K. Rowling wrote Harry Potter after her marriage had imploded and she was left to raise a young daughter with nothing but a hope, an idea, and a typewriter. She too was deluded.
Delusions cost the human race billions per year in misspent public and private funds. But the losses are dwarfed by feats of imagination on which our most storied triumphs are based. Productive delusions are a beautiful thing.